Taiwan Going the Way of HK? | ChinaLegalBlog.com

2009-10-08

Taiwan Going the Way of HK?

Taiwan’s position as a de facto independent state seems to be morphing very slowly toward the “one country, two systems” status of Hong Kong. The process is not irreversible but the sentiments of those of mainland origin in the governing Nationalist Party, along with the self-interest of business groups and a widespread sense of economic vulnerability are all pushing the island toward accommodation with Beijing.

The trend could mean an erosion in the support Taiwan gets, albeit erratically, from the United States and Japan. (New York Times)

Would this be great or what? Sometimes when I muse historical about the U.S.-China bilateral relationship, I fantasize that the Korean War either never happened or, at least, started a year later than it actually did.

The almost certain result? Taiwan would have been retaken from the Nationalists sometime around 1950, and the status of that island would have had absolutely no bearing on U.S.-China relations, now or at any time in the past.

I can dream about it, right?

I guess the next best thing would be that Taiwan eventually goes the way of Hong Kong and Macao. Lots of folks have been saying this for a long time, of course, but it now has a whiff of inevitability about it, particularly since it is obviously in the best interests of big corporations – that always helps.

Why wait? Let's get the negotiations started right away.

I wonder what the military savings alone would be on both sides of the Pacific if a "one country, two systems" deal was struck? Probably enough to pay for health care reform in China and the U.S.

On the other hand, maybe all the American and Chinese military suppliers will pool their cash and pay off a sufficient number of Taiwanese politicians to scuttle any deal before it reaches fruition. We are talking a lot of money here to keep everyone armed.

I can't wait to see which moneyed interest wins out in the end!

Tags: China News, U.S.-China Relations