Property Values Are Fine. Trust Me. Now Go Buy A House

2009-12-05

I don't know where to start with this one. After reading this China Daily article, which was entitled "Property Market Growth Not Bubble," I was so pissed off that I decided to get off my weekend ass and actually post something (yes, I have a weekend ass, and it's famously lazy).

China's property market is not facing big risks in the short term despite a rapid growing real estate price in some key cities this year, industry experts said at a national forum today.

OK, so far, so good. If industry experts want to argue about property values and have a reasonable explanation for why things are sustainable, I'll listen. If I'm convinced, I'll stop using the term "bubble."

"A key indicator to judge the scale of the property bubble is to see the financial leverage of mortgage and property developers' debt ratio," Teng Tai, managing director of China Galaxy Securities Companies Limited, said at the CIHAF 2009, the country's largest professional real estate expo.

Um, excuse me. If the expert you quote uses "bubble" straight off, I'm not sure I care what the rest of the article says. The term, by definition, describes something that isn't sustainable. If the market is just growing, we call it . . . uh . . . what's the word I'm looking for . . . GROWTH! When it's unsustainable, we call it a bubble, or a ponzi scheme, or a criminal enterprise (whatever is relevant). Well, I shouldn't really say that, since some criminal enterprises can last a long time (e.g. drug dealers, military contractors, investment banks).

"In China, the financial leverage of home purchase is still under control and is not likely to trigger a crisis like the ones US and Dubai experienced."

I see. "Not likely." Well, nothing to worry about then?

You know, saying that the market will not spiral downwards precipitously to explode below on the jagged rocks of a depression is kind of like telling a soldier who wakes up in a hospital after stepping on a landmine to not worry because "You'll live."

The article saved this nugget to the very end. See if you can figure out why the "experts" were talking up the market and trying to allay fears.

During the three-day expo, a land promotion forum was also held, with more than 10 cities over the country, including Beijing, Rizhao and Qingdao offering many primary land parcels for auction. The cities also brought their flagship property projects to the expo. Hainan province, for instance, brought opportunities for land from Phoenix Island, the most expensive project in Sanya with sales prices ranging from 50,000 yuan to 100,000 yuan per sq m.

For *#@&'s sake. I really am just a realist, not a cynical pessimist, after all.

Perhaps the worst part of all this silliness is that as long as government policy is to prop up the market, the bubble will indeed keep expanding for a while.

Perhaps instead of simply calling it a bubble, we should refer to it as a bubble gum bubble; when this overinflated market finally pops, it'll be very messy and hard to clean up.

Tags: China Business & Economy