US Has Hard Time Getting China On Board With Iran Sanctions

2010-02-11

Hmm, no one would have expected that.

The US was today spearheading a diplomatic campaign to overcome Chinese opposition to further sanctions aimed at Iran and its Revolutionary Guards in a renewed push following Tehran's decision to produce uranium almost six times more enriched than its existing stockpile.

[ . . . ]

To help convince Beijing of the need to act, Hillary Clinton, the US secretary of state, is due to fly to Qatar and Saudi Arabia this weekend, in part to discuss assurances the Gulf states could give China that its oil and gas needs would be met during the sanctions period.

[ . . . ]

Obama said he expected UN negotiations to move quickly. But European diplomats warned that those talks would be hindered by Chinese resistance to new punitive measures against Iran. "We think it is going to be slow going," said one, pointing to the poor state of US-Chinese relations.

The Guardian

You know, it's really easy to complain about Beijing's treatment of Google, the value of China's currency, the grumbling of foreign investors, trade disputes, and so on. And the U.S. might be on the right side of some of those issues.

But in the international relations arena, none of that shit matters as much as who has leverage and who wants what. If Iran sanctions are a matter of top priority for the U.S., and the Obama administration truly believes that it has a shot persuading Beijing to get on board, then you don't fucking sell weapons to Taiwan mere days before a renewed diplomatic initiative on the Iran issue.

This doesn't seem like rocket science to me, but what the hell do I know? It's not like I have a graduate degree on the subject or anything.

Perhaps there is an alternate explanation to poor IR execution:

1. Iran sanctions are not really a top priority for the U.S. Perhaps the Obama administration just wants to appear as though they care about sanctions.

2. Iran sanctions were never going to happen anyway. This is all theater because sanctions are untenable.

3. China was never on board. Might as well piss 'em off, they're never going to agree anyway.

Nah, I still believe that U.S. policy is uncoordinated.

The U.S. demands of China are a tough sell notwithstanding non-Iran related matters. Iran is a very important China partner, a nation working with Beijing on energy as well as a number of other commercial issues. To agree to sanctions, China would take a big, direct hit even if the U.S. was successful in guaranteeing China's oil needs.

Moreover, what kind of signal would China be sending to its other allies across the globe? Many energy suppliers and other friendlies are frowned upon by the West for a variety of reasons related to governmental structure, domestic politics, support of terrorism, etc. If China is willing to throw Iran under the bus in the face of pressure from the U.S. and EU, which other trading partner might be next?

This is not an easy decision for China. U.S. bungling of the negotiation makes it that much easier to say no.

Tags: U.S.-China Relations