The country’s balance of payments position posted a surplus in October, the first time in seven months, allowing the gross international reserves to rise to $94 billion, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas said Friday.
Data from the BSP showed that the BOP yielded a $711-million surplus in October, following a deficit of $2.3 billion in September. The October surplus was, however, lower than the $1.14-billion surplus registered in the same month last year.
This brought the 10-month BOP position to a deficit of $7.11 billion in the first 10 months, a reversal of the $476-million surplus a year ago.
“The BOP surplus in October 2022 reflected inflows arising mainly from the national government’s net foreign currency deposits with the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas,” the BSP said in a statement.
“Meanwhile, the current year-to-date BOP level, which is a reversal from the $476-million surplus recorded in the same period a year ago, reflected the widening trade in goods deficit as goods imports continued to surpass goods exports on the back of the persistent surge in international commodity prices and resumption in domestic economic activities,” it said.
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The gross international reserves added $1 billion to reach $94.0 billion as of end-October from $93.0 as of end-September.
“The latest GIR level represents a more than adequate external liquidity buffer equivalent to 7.5 months’ worth of imports of goods and payments of services and primary income. Moreover, it is also about 6.9 times the country’s short-term external debt based on original maturity and 4.1 times based on residual maturity,” the BSP said.
BOP is the difference in total value between payments into and out of a country over a period.
The BSP adjusted BOP deficit forecast this year to $8.4 billion from an initial estimate of $6.3-billion shortfall, taking into consideration the further weakening of global demand. The adjusted BOP deficit target is equivalent to around -2.0 percent of the gross domestic product.
The Monetary Board approved the new set of 2022 and 2023 BOP projections in its Sept. 16, 2022 meeting. The set of BOP projections incorporates the latest available data and recent emerging developments.
The BSP said the emerging BOP outlook over the near term remained subdued as external risks had intensified relative to the last forecast round in June 2022.
The risks of further downward revision in global growth prospects, record-high inflation print worldwide, more aggressive monetary policy tightening by major central banks, continued economic slump in China, and lingering Ukraine-Russia conflict were expected to broadly weaken global demand conditions, and hence, the country’s external sector.
Data showed that the BOP posted a surplus of $1.345 billion in 2021, lower than the $16.022-billion surplus recorded in 2020.
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This data comes from MediaIntel.Asia's Media Intelligence and Media Monitoring Platform.