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Is US support a dealbreaker?
Anton has asked whether, in the event of Donald Trump winning in 2024 and withdrawing US support, Ukraine's remaining allies could see it through to victory.
Military expert Sean Bell had this to say on the matter...
Since the war began, the Biden administration and the US Congress have directed more than $75bn in assistance to Ukraine, which includes humanitarian, financial and military support.
As the second-biggest donor, the UK has committed £4.6bn in military assistance to Ukraine (£2.3bn last year and a commitment to match that funding this year). As of February this year, military aid was donated by a variety of EU institutions and 45 sovereign countries.
Although there are many nations supporting Ukraine, the US is by far the biggest donor of both financial and military aid. Therefore, if the US decided to stop supporting Ukraine, it would leave a significant gap that would be very hard for others to fill.
However, the world of politics rarely makes binary decisions, so it is very unlikely that any nation would halt the supply of military aid overnight. All nations have domestic priorities that have had to be compromised to support Ukraine, and most will struggle to maintain the same level of support for Ukraine in perpetuity.
But Russia will also struggle to maintain the level of commitment to its invasion, which is why the forthcoming Ukrainian spring offensive has such strategic importance.
Politically, the US would probably welcome Europe taking a greater leadership role in the Ukraine conflict; it is on the European continent, and the US has encouraged European members of NATO to increase their level of domestic defence spending closer to the 2% of GDP target.
This could leave the US to focus on the Indo-Pacific region and encourage a more equitable international contribution to global security.
Regardless, had the West not provided military support for Ukraine, it is very likely that Russia's invasion would have been considerably more successful, and a Russian victory in Ukraine would have profound implications for global security.
Therefore, notwithstanding the costs and implications, the international community is very likely to continue to support Ukraine over the medium to long term, though we can expect to see individual nations review their specific level of support along the way.

This data comes from MediaIntel.Asia's Media Intelligence and Media Monitoring Platform.

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