LONDON, June 26 (Reuters Breakingviews) - A failed mutiny against Russian President Vladimir Putin rams home the European Union’s need to protect itself from trouble abroad. Leaders meeting this week in Brussels are already thinking in more geostrategic terms. But until they act as a bloc they will lack clout.
The short-lived uprising by mercenaries led by Yevgeny Prigozhin has weakened Putin, and could help Ukraine in its ongoing counteroffensive against Russia. However, it has also raised the prospect of more chaos, unpredictability and danger on the EU’s frontiers.
The EU is already suffering for its past failure to take Russia’s threats more seriously. Companies and consumers face higher energy bills while governments are having to rearm. EU taxpayers will also need to pick up much of the tab for rebuilding Ukraine.
What’s more, the EU faces threats to its economic security from further afield - especially from an increasingly bellicose China.
An inability to fight for its own interests would be a shame for the rest of the world, not just the EU. The group and its 27 members have valuable things to say about the need to preserve free trade in a divided world and how to fast-track the transition to green technologies.
The EU also isn’t remotely as threatening as China or even the United States, not to mention Russia. So the more influence it has on how the world manages overlapping political, economic and climate crises, the better.
There are three reasons why the EU did little before Putin invaded Ukraine: it didn’t think geopolitically; it needs unanimity among its 27 states to agree foreign policy; and most of its members lack military muscle. Without U.S. weapons, the Russian flag would now be flying over Kyiv.
The EU used to comfort itself that, even if it was a geopolitical weakling, it was an economic giant. Even this boast is shaky. The group’s share of global output has fallen to 18% from 25% since the 2008 financial crisis. Over the same period, China’s share has risen to 18% from 7%, while the United States has stayed flat at 24%.
The EU seems destined to continue its relative decline because of weak innovation and an ageing population. People aged 65 or over as a proportion of those aged 15-64 will rise from a third today to a half by the middle of the century, according to Eurostat. That said, the EU still represents a vast market and can play an important role on the world stage.
Reuters Graphics
EUROPEAN DISUNION?
The EU’s determined and united response to Putin’s invasion took itself and others by surprise. Germany, France and Poland are boosting military spending. The EU and its members have made contributions to Ukraine’s war effort. And the group has imposed tough sanctions on Russia. But the EU was only able to achieve unanimity because it saw the invasion as an existential threat. Even then, forging a consensus has sometimes been painstakingly difficult.
Similar unity will also be necessary to meet other big challenges. The most serious is from China, which is providing Putin with diplomatic cover for his war on Ukraine, threatening Taiwan and bullying countries such as Lithuania.
The United States will carry most of the burden of deterring China. But the EU and its members can certainly provide support. They may also be able to restrain the U.S. if it is close to provoking China into a Cold War - or even a hot one.
The EU has already persuaded President Joe Biden’s administration to adopt its mantra of “de-risking” exposure to China rather than “decoupling” from the People’s Republic. Striking the balance between excess dependence and cutting off a valuable commercial opportunity is especially important for the group. Trade in goods with China last year was equivalent to 6% of the EU’s output, double the U.S. proportion.
It would also be great if the EU could convince the U.S. to be less protectionist when subsidising green technologies, and to do more to help poorer countries in the so-called Global South go green. But its influence will be limited if it cannot speak with one voice.
SECOND-BEST SOLUTIONS
The best solution to the EU’s lack of unity would be for it to use majority voting to determine foreign policy - as it already does for economic policy. It would then be easier to forge a common approach. But that shift won’t happen quickly, even though foreign ministers of seven EU countries, including Germany and Spain, are calling for more majority voting. The EU will have to hobble along with unanimity for now.
That approach faces a litmus test this week when member states attempt to agree on a strong policy regarding China. French President Emmanuel Macron put a cat among the pigeons when he visited the People’s Republic in April, and said Europe should not be “drawn” into a Taiwan conflict. Many other EU leaders were furious.
One specific item on the agenda will be the “economic security strategy” the European Commission has put on the table. It proposes stronger export controls and screening outbound investments in key technologies. It’s unclear whether member states will agree, though.
Failure to reach a consensus will not totally blunt European influence. After all, Germany, France and Italy are members of the Group of Seven rich democracies, which is becoming an increasingly important geostrategic forum.
They will have even more clout if they work with the other G7 members such as Japan, the United Kingdom and Canada, with whom they have much in common. A common front will be doubly important if Donald Trump returns to the White House after next year’s presidential election.
But neither the EU nor its members should kid themselves that it’s in their interests to break with the United States. What they need to do is build up their military might to establish a more equal standing within a strong transatlantic alliance.
Even if they do that, they will be dependent on the U.S. for the foreseeable future. And so long as they are free-riding on American muscle, they will have to put up with less desirable behaviour, including some protectionism.
The EU is often described as a “bloc”. If only it were.
Follow @Hugodixon on Twitter
(The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)
Editing by Peter Thal Larsen and Thomas Shum
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

This data comes from MediaIntel.Asia's Media Intelligence and Media Monitoring Platform.