{"id":161637,"date":"2023-06-30T08:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-06-30T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mediaintel.asia\/?p=920626"},"modified":"2023-06-30T08:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-06-30T00:00:00","slug":"summer-strife-world-market-themes-for-the-week-ahead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.chinalegalblog.com\/en\/2023\/06\/30\/summer-strife-world-market-themes-for-the-week-ahead\/","title":{"rendered":"Summer strife: World market themes for the week ahead"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"MediaIntel.Asia\"<\/a><\/div>\n

The July 4 holiday in the United States may well bring a quiet start to the week for world markets. But don\u2019t bet on it.
\nChina and Japan are worried about currency weakness, meaning investors are alert for signs of action from authorities. Australia\u2019s central bank meets and the most closely-watched U.S. economic indicator is out Friday.
\nHere\u2019s a look at the week ahead in markets from Lewis Krauskopf in New York, Kevin Buckland in Tokyo, and Naomi Rovnick, Amanda Cooper and Karin Strohecker in London.
\nTime for some non-farm
\nInvestors betting on resiliency of the U.S. economy have found solace in the solid labour market. But its strength will be tested by the July 7 monthly jobs report.
\nEconomists polled by Reuters expect 200,000 new jobs were created in June, a slowdown from recent monthly growth. In May, non-farm payrolls increased 339,000, well above estimates, although a surge in the unemployment rate to a seven-month high of 3.7 per cent suggested that labour market conditions were easing.
\nThe jobs report comes after the Federal Reserve skipped raising rates in June after lifting them at 10 straight meetings. Investors expect the Fed to resume hiking in July. Of course, if the labour market is weakening more than expected, such a move could be thrown into doubt.
\nAfter all, Fed Chair Jerome Powell says interest rates will move at a \u201ccareful pace\u201d from here.
\nChina blues
\nChinese data looks set to deepen speculation that Beijing stands ready to stimulate a flagging economy and prop up a weakening currency.
\nMonday\u2019s Caixin purchasing managers index for the manufacturing sector may show business conditions deteriorating, Societe Generale analysts say, citing \u201chigh-frequency data.\u201d
\nWeak consumer confidence and a lacklustre property market have helped push Chinese equities down about 5 per cent in the last quarter. The yuan has lost around 4.6 per cent against the dollar so far this year.
\nBy setting a stronger-than-expected trading band for its currency on June 27, China may have hinted that economic policy is shifting into stimulus mode.
\nTo keep 2023 GDP growth above 5 per cent, authorities are likely to continue cutting rates, step up support for home buyers and increase investment in high-tech manufacturing. And if growth deteriorates further, a \u201cmore aggressive\u201d response is likely, analysts say.
\nWhiplash?
\nThe investors wearing neck braces must be Australian.
\nThe Reserve Bank of Australia and economic data have conspired to give markets repeated cases of whiplash ahead of Tuesday\u2019s highly anticipated policy decision.
\nResilient retail sales data on Thursday suggested some cushion for another rate rise, a day after a shock slide in consumer inflation to a 13-year low saw an aggressive paring of tightening bets.
\nPrior to that, a blockbuster jobs report midmonth had seen hike bets rise, after getting wound down following surprisingly dovish minutes of the June meeting, showing the decision to raise rates was \u201cfinely balanced.\u201d
\nThe upshot? Market odds are just 1-in-3 for a third consecutive quarter point bump on July 4, and an Aussie dollar languishing at multi-week lows. Considering the May hike was also a line-ball call, neck stretches seem advisable.
\nPutin and the mutineers
\nThe Wagner mutiny, the gravest threat to Russia\u2019s Vladimir Putin\u2019s rule to date, might have been aborted, but will long reverberate. Any changes to Russia\u2019s standing \u2013 or to the momentum behind the war in Ukraine \u2013 could be felt near and far.
\nThe immediate fallout would be felt in commodity markets from crude oil to grains \u2013 most sensitive to domestic changes in Russia. But knock on effects, from inflation pressures to risk aversion in case of a major escalation, could have far reaching consequences for countries and corporates already feeling the heat from rising rates.
\nThe domestic fallout from the uprising is also still in flux. Two of Russia\u2019s most senior generals having dropped out of public view while the ruble crashed through the 87 to the dollar level to a 15-month low on political risk concerns.
\nGreedflation
\nInflation has eased from multiyear peaks. But for anyone that has visited a supermarket, put fuel in their car, or even paid for concert tickets across big economies, the cost of living remains high.
\nIMF researchers calculate that in the first quarter, corporate profits accounted for 45 per cent of the annual rise in euro area inflation, by far the largest contributing factor, and that ratio is similar elsewhere.
\nIt says companies need to relinquish some of their juicy profits if inflation is to get back to target.
\nNo doubt central banks have had some success in quelling inflation with rate rises. Trade flows meanwhile have normalized since Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine, while the cost of the likes of wheat, sunflower oil or oil have eased.
\nStill with the inflation fight far from over, expect companies to now face greater scrutiny from policy-makers and consumers alike.
\nBe smart with your money. Get the latest investing insights delivered right to your inbox three times a week, with the Globe Investor newsletter. Sign up today.<\/p>\n

This data comes from MediaIntel.Asia's Media Intelligence and Media Monitoring Platform<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The July 4 holiday in the United States may well bring a quiet start to the week for world markets. But don\u2019t bet on it.
\nChina and Japan are worried about currency weakness, meaning investors are alert for signs of action from authorities. Australia\u2019s…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":253,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[934,669,65,144,1527,586,477,693,1607,785,194,472,1002,249,1542,484],"tags":[2086,7007,3472,10318,5099,10315,7571,10413,10343,8820,10351],"class_list":["post-161637","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-agriculture","category-bank","category-beijing","category-china","category-currency","category-economy","category-investment","category-japan","category-manufacturing","category-new-york","category-news-chinese-law","category-renminbi","category-retail","category-russia","category-technology","category-united-states","tag-australia","tag-car","tag-chinese","tag-dollar","tag-london","tag-media-intelligence","tag-oil","tag-putin","tag-supermarket","tag-tokyo","tag-war"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.chinalegalblog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/161637","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.chinalegalblog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.chinalegalblog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.chinalegalblog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/253"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.chinalegalblog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=161637"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.chinalegalblog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/161637\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":161638,"href":"https:\/\/www.chinalegalblog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/161637\/revisions\/161638"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.chinalegalblog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=161637"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.chinalegalblog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=161637"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.chinalegalblog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=161637"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}