{"id":19039,"date":"2012-02-25T13:27:50","date_gmt":"2012-02-25T05:27:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.chinamoneypodcast.com\/?p=663"},"modified":"2012-02-25T13:27:50","modified_gmt":"2012-02-25T05:27:50","slug":"michael-werner-chinese-banks-will-surprise-on-the-upside","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.chinalegalblog.com\/en\/2012\/02\/25\/michael-werner-chinese-banks-will-surprise-on-the-upside\/","title":{"rendered":"Michael Werner: Chinese Banks Will Surprise On The Upside"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>In this episode of China Money Podcast, guest Michael Werner discusses Chinese banks' stocks; banks' exposure to local governments and the property sector; and whether Chinese banks will see their non-performing loan ratios skyrocket.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; There are still upsides for the Chinese banking stocks as they trade well below past levels<br \/>\n&#8211; Chinese banks' exposure to local governments and the property sector is manageable. NPL ratio will likely go up to only 2.5 percent<br \/>\n&#8211; Most listed Chinese banks have sustainable capital regimes and don't have to raise additional equity<br \/>\n&#8211; Chinese banks' should focus on wealth management, custody business and financial advisory to boost their fee-based revenue<br \/>\n&#8211; Fee-based revenue will keep growing at a 20 to 25 percent annual rate and will take up to 25 percent of banks' total revenue in five years<br \/>\n&#8211; China could begin to liberalize deposit interest rates in a year or two, but it will not hurt banks' profitability<\/p>\n<p><em>\"In general, I think Chinese banks are going to surprise people on how well they are provisioned and what the ultimate NPL ratio will be. Some people have been forecasting 8 to 12 percent (NPL ratio); that does not seem likely in our viewpoint.\"<\/em><br \/>\n<em> &#8211; Michael Werner<\/em><\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/bBpZDy_ISkU?fs=1&#038;feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>\u4e2d\u56fd\u5927\u9646\u7528\u6237<a href=\"http:\/\/v.youku.com\/v_show\/id_XMzU2NjMxMjA4.html\" >\u8bf7\u70b9\u51fb\u8fd9\u91cc\u89c2\u770b\u89c6\u9891<\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><strong>Our Guest Today:<\/strong><br \/>\n<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft size-medium wp-image-672\" title=\"Michael-Werner\" src=\"http:\/\/www.chinamoneypodcast.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Michael-Werner-243x300.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"101\" height=\"125\" \/>Michael Werner is senior research analyst covering the Chinese and Hong Kong banks at Sanford Bernstein &amp; Co. He has been with Bernstein for 12 years, previously covering U.S. banks, brokerages and European banks. Werner graduated from Brown University in 2000 with a BA in Economics and a BA in Mathematics.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In this episode of China Money Podcast, guest Michael Werner discusses Chinese banks' stocks; banks' exposure to local governments and the property sector; and whether Chinese banks will see their non-performing loan ratios skyrocket. &#8211; There are still upsides for the Chinese banking stocks as they trade well below past levels &#8211; Chinese banks' exposure [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":125,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[37,144,586,671,339,115,477,194,64],"tags":[3513,3470,3471,3472,3514,3473,3515,3404,2750,3479,3516,3517],"class_list":["post-19039","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-business","category-china","category-economy","category-finance","category-hong-kong","category-insurance","category-investment","category-news-chinese-law","category-taiwan","tag-analysis","tag-asia","tag-banks","tag-chinese","tag-forex","tag-investing","tag-market","tag-news","tag-podcasts","tag-stocks","tag-technical","tag-trading"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.chinalegalblog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19039","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.chinalegalblog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.chinalegalblog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.chinalegalblog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/125"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.chinalegalblog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19039"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.chinalegalblog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19039\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.chinalegalblog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19039"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.chinalegalblog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19039"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.chinalegalblog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19039"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}